TAPE — Gold held $4,198 (++0.99%) while silver slipped 1.4% and copper miners fell 1.6%. But the miners finally stopped lagging: GDX +1.47% beat GLD +0.73%, and the GDX/GLD ratio is up -1.4% over 5 days after a 20-day washout that took GDX 9.7% lower.
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA −0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and an 8% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 5.8% FCF yield, 0.7× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — The Sept FOMC minutes showed most policymakers expect another hike by year-end — and gold rose anyway (+0.4% spot, futures +0.44% to $4,131.80). Silver closed at a record $59.06. Hawkish Fed, rising metal: the fear bid is beating the rate bid right now.
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,198 | -1.11% | -1.10% | -7.17% | -4.2% | -7.6% | |
| Silver | $60.35 | -2.10% | -0.45% | -12.17% | -6.6% | -15.2% | |
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $39.46 | -0.55% | +0.08% | -3.02% | -1.0% | +5.1% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $14.82 | -4.46% | -4.09% | -13.82% | -7.2% | -16.1% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $147.58 | -0.69% | -1.20% | -4.04% | +6.6% | +26.9% | |
| GLD (gold) | $378.62 | -1.67% | -1.30% | -6.81% | -4.6% | -9.0% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $86.72 | -3.13% | -2.67% | -14.08% | -5.9% | -4.8% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $110.90 | -3.88% | -4.22% | -15.56% | -7.3% | -7.3% | |
| SLV (silver) | $53.45 | -2.94% | -1.27% | -11.36% | -7.7% | -18.8% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $84.68 | -3.54% | -2.85% | -16.53% | -7.3% | -7.3% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $82.22 | -3.13% | -1.32% | -12.27% | -6.3% | -1.1% | |
| FCX | $71.13 | -0.96% | +2.66% | -5.73% | -0.0% | +11.2% | |
| NEM | $115.55 | -2.45% | -1.56% | -11.79% | -3.1% | +3.4% |
Ratios: gold/silver 69.6 · GDX/GLD 0.2290 (-1.4% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT — spot feeds not on this data tier.
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4215 | +0.35% | +0.25% | +2.55% | CAD weaker = cost tailwind | |
| USD / MXN | 18.1748 | +0.00% | -1.67% | +4.92% | MXN much weaker = big tailwind | |
| USD / CLP | 983.2800 | +0.69% | -0.59% | +2.36% | CLP move = watch | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4337 | +0.31% | -0.46% | +2.55% | AUD move = watch |
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the catch-up.
Read: after trailing gold for weeks, miners outperformed the metal 4 of the last 5 sessions. Mean-reversion of the miner discount — not yet a trend.
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $115.55 | +1.77% | 7.9% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $71.13 | -1.02% | 5.8% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $102.10 | -0.63% | 9.7% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-08 close. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.
News section pending — subscriber pull in progress.